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09/03/2010 -
NORMAN, Okla. (AP) -The pictures on the walls and the old videos Bob Stoops shows to his players serve as a reminder that Oklahoma's program has been thriving for decades, since long before any of them were around.
On Saturday night, Oklahoma can add to its storied history with a win against Utah State in the season opener for both teams.
By beating the Aggies, the Sooners can become only the seventh Division I team in college football history to make it to 800 wins. The others are Michigan, Texas, Notre Dame, Nebraska, Ohio State and Penn State.
``It just shows how much tradition we have here and all of the hard work and the blood, sweat and tears that the past players have put into this,'' running back DeMarco Murray said. ``We're trying to continue that tradition.
``It's Oklahoma and we expect to win a lot of games here.''
The Sooners' 560 wins since the end of World War II are the most by any school, though Michigan is far ahead with a Division I-leading 877.
``This is ... one of the more special schools in college football. You look at our tradition and history and you don't go back just a few years, you go back decades. There's not many like it,'' Stoops said. ``We're excited to be here as a team and proud to be a part of that history and tradition. Hopefully, we can keep adding to it.''
To do that, Oklahoma will need to avoid starting a second straight season with an unexpected loss to a Utah team. Last season, BYU beat the Sooners 14-13 in a game best remembered for 2008 Heisman Trophy winner Sam Bradford's shoulder injury.
The shocking loss came only eight months after their appearance in the BCS championship game. Oklahoma wound up 8-5, matching the most losses in Stoops' 11 years as head coach.
``The first game is a big game. You saw what happened in our first game last year,'' tight end Trent Ratterree said. ``We don't want to do something like we did last year. We want to completely change the way we played and in essence become a new team.''
Utah State has tried to reinvent itself since its last visit to Owen Field, a 54-3 Oklahoma blowout in 2007. Gary Andersen put together the 12th-best offense in the nation last season and went 4-8 in his first year in charge of the Aggies, the team's best win total since 2002.
That included giving an early-season scare to Texas A&M, losing 38-30 but having a chance to tie the game after recovering a late onside kick. That's the game that caught Stoops' eye as he told his team not to overlook the Aggies.
``What we have to do is walk in there with a mindset that we can tackle well and we can protect the quarterback,'' Andersen said. ``Those are two big glaring things. Those are two things we have to do to be able to have a chance in this football game.
``If we can't do those two things, it is going to be a long day.''
Unlike last year, the Sooners haven't been ravaged by injuries heading into their opener. Middle linebacker Austin Box (back) is out and defensive linemen Adrian Taylor and Frank Alexander may not play because of ankle injuries. That's nothing compared to the chaos that preceded last year's opener, with a late injury to NFL-bound tight end Jermaine Gresham compounding issues on the offensive line.
``We have something to prove. We didn't play Oklahoma football last year,'' receiver Ryan Broyles said. ``We know we have a tough schedule, but we wouldn't be here at this university if we weren't going to play great teams. We want to play like champions game in and game out.''Copyright © 2005 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. The information contained in the AP News report may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed without the prior written authority of The Associated Press.
<< It's Darron Thomas time for the No. 11 Ducks
EUGENE, Ore. (AP) -Darron Thomas seems to have it easy, making his debut as Oregon's starting quarterback at home and with the No. 11 Ducks heavily favored.But it's quite the contrary.When Thomas takes the field on Saturday against New Mexico, all e
<< No. 8 Nebraska goes down to wire with QB call
LINCOLN, Neb. (AP) -Nebraska fans haven't forgotten that one-point loss to Texas in the Big 12 championship game and they're still celebrating next year's move to the Big Ten.But the biggest topic of conversation in Big Red country has been about wh
<< WVU's Devine ready for senior year
MORGANTOWN, W.Va. (AP) -Noel Devine stayed in school just for this.Rather than take a chance on the NFL draft last April, Devine is returning for one final season in which he believes ``the sky is the limit.''Liftoff starts Saturday when No. 25 West
<< Roethlisberger's suspension reduced to four games
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - NFL commissioner Roger Goodell has reduced the
suspension of Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger from six to
four games.
The NFL Network reported that the reduction came after Goodell me
Penguins sign Mike Comrie >>
Pittsburgh, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Pittsburgh Penguins have signed forward
Mike Comrie to a one-year contract worth $500,000.
Comrie spent last season with Edmonton and registered 13 goals with eight
assists for 21 points in 43
Nationwide to end tour sponsorship in 2012 >>
Dublin, OH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Nationwide Insurance has closed one door and
opened another.
The company said Friday it will no longer sponsor the PGA Tour's developmental
circuit when its contract runs out after the 2012 season. B
Seattle, New England set to meet at Gillette Stadium >>
Foxborough, MA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Seattle Sounders FC travel to New England to
take on the Revolution, hoping to extend their current unbeaten run in Major
League Soccer play to nine games.
Seattle (9-8-5) have rebounded nicely from an
Surging Wizards seek more road success at Union >>
Chester, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Kansas City coach Peter Vermes said last week's
2-0 win at the Los Angeles Galaxy was "probably our best 90-minute performance
of the whole season," but the surging Wizards still have work to do to qualify
for the
2007 Academy Award Betting : Oscars odds
The 79th Annual Academy Awards odds , which will air February 25th, is sparking an interest throughout the nation with the announcement of its nominees. As the public chooses their favorites, sportsbooks are creating odds for one of the biggest entertainment betting nights of the year.
Whether its at a “Oscar Party” or in an on line sportsbook, entertainment gambling on award shows represent a huge increase in betting. As the public speculation mounts, MySportsbook.com, the largest and most respected sportsbook on the web, posted odds on who is going home with a “Golden Best Friend.”
“ We see a majority of our entertainment wagers come from the Academy Awards,” said MySportsbook.com spokesperson, Tim Dalton. “This is a competition that applies to everyone. These are the people that entertain us on a daily basis and you want to see them win.”
MySportsbook.com posted the following odds for Academy Awards:
Odds to win the Achievement in Directing:
Alejandro González Iñárritu "Babel": 8/1
Martin Scorsese "The Departed": 2/17
Clint Eastwood "Letters From Iwo Jima: 4/1
Stephen Frears "The Queen": 12/1
Paul Greengrass "United 93": 15/1
Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role:
Leonardo DiCaprio in "Blood Diamond": 11/1
Ryan Gosling in "Half Nelson": 20/1
Peter O’Toole in "Venus": 16/5
Will Smith in "The Pursuit of Happyness": 16/1
Forest Whitaker in "The Last King of Scotland": 1/11
Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role:
Penélope Cruz in "Volver": 18/1
Judi Dench in "Notes on a Scandal": 15/1
Helen Mirren in "The Queen": 1/50
Meryl Streep in "The Devil Wears Prada": 10/1
Kate Winslet in "Little Children": 20/1
Best Animated Feature Film:
"Cars": 1/3
"Happy Feet": 2/1
"Monster House": 20/1
Best Foreign-Language Film of the Year:
"Water" – Canada: 22/1
"The Lives of Others" – Germany: 7/2
"After the Wedding" - Denmark: 24/1
"Days of Glory (Indigenes)" – Algeria: 23/1
"Pan's Labyrinth" - Mexico: 1/10
Odds to win the Best Live-Action Short Film:
"Binta and the Great Idea (Binta Y La Gran Idea)": 6/5
"Eramos Pocos (One Too Many)": 7/2
"Helmer & Son": 5/2
"The Saviour": 6/1
"West Bank Story": 7/2
Odds to win the Best Original Screenplay:
"Babel": 7/4
"Letters From Iwo Jima": 3/1
"Little Miss Sunshine": 21/20
"Pan's Labyrinth": 11/4
"The Queen": 5/4
Best Motion Picture of the Year:
"Babel": 11/4
"The Departed": 1/2
"Letters from Iwo Jima": 15/2
"Little Miss Sunshine": 17/10
"The Queen": 20/1
Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role:
Alan Arkin in "Little Miss Sunshine": 11/10
Jackie Earle Haley in "Little Children": 10/1
Djimon Hounsou in "Blood Diamond": 9/1
Eddie Murphy in "Dreamgirls": 2/5
Mark Wahlberg in "The Departed": 5/1
Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role:
Adriana Barraza in "Babel": 14/1
Cate Blanchett in "Notes on a Scandal": 11/1
Abigail Breslin in "Little Miss Sunshine": 2/1
Jennifer Hudson in "Dreamgirls": 1/8
Rinko Kikuchi in "Babel": 11/1
Film To Win Most Oscars:
Dreamgirls: 2/3
Pans Labyrinth: 6/5
The Departed: 6/1
The Queen: 11/1
Babel: 15/1
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest: 11/1
Little Miss Sunshine: 15/1
Additional sports and entertainment odds can be found at: www.MySportsbook.com
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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